Forecasting future claims development plays a major role in non-life insurance. This holds for pricing purposes as well as for reserving, where the IBNR-reserve of a company for not yet (fully) reported claims can grow to several times its yearly premium income.

The calculation of IBNR-reserves is a careful process, because slight changes in model assumptions may have a huge impact on the resulting reserve. In the past decades, IBNR-models have evolved from simple calculation methods to advanced stochastic models which can capture reality better and better.

In this seminar the process of IBNR-reserving will be pursued in a systematic way and at an introductory level. This will be done by taking into account the context of reserving, because it is not a stand-alone activity, it is a part of integral risk and capital management.